Eknath Shinde as Maharashtra CM: A BJP feat to checkmate Uddhav Thackeray?

In 2019, the Nation­al Demo­c­ra­t­ic Alliance in Maha­rash­tra bit­ter­ly col­lapsed after the gen­er­al elec­tion because the BJP was unwill­ing to accept Shiv Sena’s claim to the post of prime minister.
Two and a half years lat­er, the BJP has done just that. It installed a rebel Shiv Sainik, Eknath Shindeas prime min­is­ter of the state.
Not only that, but the BJP has also “request­ed” its own leader. Deven­dra Fad­naviswho was par­ty leader from 2014 to 2019, to work as Shin­de’s deputy.
The dou­ble twist in Maha­rash­tra his­to­ry is not only sur­pris­ing but fascinating.

2019 vs 2022
When Uddhav Thack­er­ay Break­ing Shiv Sena’s decade-long asso­ci­a­tion with the BJP in 2019, he may have been con­cerned about the Saf­fron Par­ty’s grow­ing pop­u­lar­i­ty and reach in the state. Over the years, the BJP had out­grown its ally, increas­ing not only its seat count but its vote share even as the Shiv Sena strug­gled to expand its base. Uddhav may have known that play­ing sec­ond fid­dle to the BJP would have fur­ther under­mined his par­ty’s base.

The BJP, which had won almost twice as many seats as Shiv Sena, was clear­ly in no mood to give in. Deven­dra Fad­navis, who had led the BJP cam­paign, insist­ed on not allow­ing Shiv Sena to lead the coali­tion, even on a rotat­ing basis.

So what has changed now for the BJP to reverse its stance and play sec­ond fid­dle despite the par­ty hav­ing more than dou­ble MLAs than the rebel­lious Sena camp?
One of the pos­si­ble rea­sons for this “feat” may have to do with the inter­nal tur­moil in Shiv Sena unleashed by rebel leader-turned-Prime Min­is­ter Eknath Shinde.
With the Uddhav-led MVA gov­ern­ment over­thrown, Shinde would now be keen to seize con­trol of the par­ty. His appoint­ment as prime min­is­ter will help him court the Shiv Sainiks at all lev­els and gain con­trol of the party.
This would make it all the more dif­fi­cult for Uddhav Thack­er­ay and his son Aditya to rebuild the par­ty after the mas­sive rebel­lion that gave them just 13 MLAs out of 55.
A resur­gent Shinde means Uddhav must first focus on sav­ing his par­ty, rather than focus­ing on tak­ing on the BJP in the state.
For the BJP, going for­ward with­out the Thack­er­ays, a Shiv Sena will be much eas­i­er to man­age and defeat if needed.
Fur­ther­more, the BJP would not have want­ed to run with the Maha­gath­band­han of the Shiv Sena, the NCP and Con­gress on one side in the next par­lia­men­tary elec­tions and also in the Lok Sab­ha elec­tions in 2024.
Fad­navis from CM to Deputy CM
Not only has the BJP caused a headache for the Thack­er­ays, it may have sent a strong mes­sage to Deven­dra Fad­navis, cred­it­ed as the archi­tect of the Sena rebel­lion and, with the help of Shinde, was the lead can­di­date to take office as prime min­is­ter in the camp.
Fad­navis had played a key role in the BJP’s recent sur­prise wins in the Rajya Sab­ha elec­tions and also in the state’s MLC polls. The cross-vote that helped the BJP win addi­tion­al seats has been large­ly attrib­uted to the for­mer prime min­is­ter’s metic­u­lous planning.
So as the rebel­lion unfold­ed in Shiv Sena, the focus was on Fad­navis, who was believed to be pulling the strings behind the scenes.
When Uddhav resigned on Wednes­day night, almost every­one believed Fad­navis was just one step away from becom­ing leader. But as it turns out, that final step remained elu­sive for him when the BJP decid­ed to install Shinde at the helm.
Accept­ing the twist of fate, the for­mer prime min­is­ter announced he would not join the Shinde gov­ern­ment but would pro­vide out­side support.
How­ev­er, with­in hours he had to recon­sid­er his deci­sion and agreed to be Shin­de’s deputy in the new government.
BJP’s image makeover?
The BJP’s attempt to prop up Sena rebel leader Eknath Shinde will also help it com­bat the image of a pow­er-hun­gry par­ty sub­ju­gat­ing its allies.
Maha­rash­tra will be the sec­ond state after Bihar where the BJP plays sec­ond fid­dle to a region­al ally, despite being the senior part­ner in terms of seats and vote share.
For a par­ty accused by the oppo­si­tion of play­ing the big broth­er of region­al groups, these two vic­tims will help to silence those criticisms.
Of course, the BJP may have made sac­ri­fices now, but they will hope to make big gains in the future. The only con­cern might be Fad­navis, who might not be the hap­pi­est per­son play­ing sec­ond fid­dle to a rene­gade Sena leader.
How­ev­er, his demo­tion may be a short-term vic­tim. Fad­navis could be back in the sad­dle after 2024 if the BJP hoped to emerge as the clear win­ner in the state.